 BNP`s Erwin Sanft interview on [ 2010-3-8 10:01:01 | 星期一  | watches1013 ] (This is not a legal transcript. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.) ERWIN SANFT, HEAD OF CHINA & HONG KONG EQUITIES RESEARCH AT BNP PARIBAS, TALKS TO BLOOMBERG'S BERNARD LO ABOUT GROWTH IN CHINA. JANUARY 17, 2010 SPEAKERS: BERNARD LO, BLOOMBERG NEWS ERWIN SANFT, HEAD OF CHINA & HONG KONG EQUITIES RESEARCH, BNP PARIBAS 18:36 BERNARD LO, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Latest attempt to cool things down in China, regulator says it's going to paper bag printing make sure loans enter the real economy and financing will be harder to get for sectors that are energy intensive, bad for the environment or that have overcapacity. But according to my next guest, Erwin Sanft, BNP Paribas Head of China & Hong Kong Equities, taking measures we've seen so far are not enough. Good morning, sir. ERWIN SANFT, HEAD OF CHINA & HONG KONG EQUITIES RESEARCH, BNP PARIBAS: Good morning. LO: What do you mean not enough? You mean sending messages and making pronouncements just doesn't do the trick in China these days? SANFT: Well, it hasn't done the trick since 2004 or maybe even 1993. What we are going to do is get in front of the banks, which have been springing around the nation's wealth in the last 12 months or so. I'd think that's going to lead to high inflation. LO: The naysayers, those on the opposite side of the argument, would say that the speed of money, the circulation of money, increases in productivity and efficiency are going to be caps on any kind of real inflation pressures and that competition is also going to keep the cap, say, on CPI as well. There are a lot of - for every argument, there is a counterargument, as you know. SANFT: Yes. Okay. Well, I think there are two things to say to that. First is that M1 growth is a good lead indicator of CPI. It leads by seven to nine months. So we are seeing M1 growth, which is just off the charts. So we kind of imagine how this isn't going to result in higher - much higher inflation. And the second thing is that the overcapacity in China doesn't really exist anymore in the domestic consumer goods. So things like autos, consumer durables, which were an oversupply for 15 years, it's not the case anymore. LO: So you didn't have to travel far to see what the buzz in the auto space was last year, biggest market in the world now? And as we are finishing up '09, we are seeing plus-60 percent, 70 percent gains against where we were a year previous to that. They had their day in the sun? I mean, the cars, the consumer cyclicals, are they trying to find other targets out there that perhaps haven't partied so hard? http://www.chinaxiqu.com/" target="_blank">brochure printing SANFT: Well, I think what we are seeing - there has been a lot of talk in the last year about the investment growth, infrastructure in China. But we are really seeing happening rolling forward is a broad-based consumption boom. So what we're seeing in autos, what we're seeing in durables, tourism, all these areas - the Internet, there is a very broad-based consumer boom. It looks like we finally hit a point where China savings rate is starting to trend down. LO: It's interesting that you worry about inflation in a way that a lot of people out there are quite sanguine about it, and yet you come to the same conclusion in some ways. The consumer - aspirational consumers wanting to be Other articles: http://www.cn-glasses.com/Xinhua-China-News-Digest-at-.html http://netblogg.ch/klott http://www.sageep.com/Top-Chinese-legislator-propose.html 标签：watches | 浏览(144) | 回复(0)
|